TOPIC: Shipping Estimates

So based on original comments by Phil the November shipping time was possibly 4x the estimated time needed to get us our sabers. However since then the kickstarter has blown the original goal out of the water! That being said do you guys think that November is going to be accurate?

Secondary thought. Due to the extreme popularity of this kickstarter, in what order would you think our sabers be shipped? In my mind I would imagine that they would be shipped starting with backer 1 down the line to backer 2000. Does that make sense? Is that how it will go?

Thoughts?
Guesses?
Info?

I was thinking of the queue question a few days ago.

That would be ideal, first come, first served, since I backed the project pretty early. My wish? End of September!

I think a lot of it will depend on how quickly they can get their additional facilities staffed, and running to meet the demands of the regular business (which have only increased of late), the ASP business, and their new custom shop.

You would think that would be the easy part, but trying to find quality people, while also running an extremely popular business can be a challenge.

Since the scale of the Kickstarter ended up being X8 it's hard to say what this means in terms of logistics for SF. They've been hiring on more people but at this point who knows what's going to happen once the parts start rolling in and they have to sort components, weather parts, and assemble electronics.
It seems to make the most sense to ship rewards as they are fulfilled. It would be a logistical nightmare to try to ship in order of backer "order" and storage space might also become a problem if they hold onto completed rewards. Regardless of perceived "fairness" I suspect they'll start shipping as soon as they assemble a backer's reward.

My Conjectural Timeline

8/14/15: Surveys Due
8/14/15 to 8/21/15: Survey Data processed, database of backers & parts created
Late August: Raw components ordered
Early September: Raw components received
Early September to Late October: Components finished
Late September through Early November: Rewards are shipped as they are completed

Now through October: ASP electronics assembled and prepped
Early September through January 2016: Legacy Sabers rewards shipped when finished

One thing occurs to me about your timeline.

If memory serves, Phil had said that the Kickstarter funds would be used to place a large order with the machine shop for the initial parts list, so they could hit the ground running. If that is so, then the order might have been placed for all the parts, and it is just a matter of when they are received to determine how quickly the first backers orders can be fulfilled and shipped.

Possible?

I would imagine the order wouldn't be place until they know what parts they need. Since it's clear some parts have been more popular than others (looking at you Body and Emitter 10) I'd imagine they'd order more of those and less of others. That's why I'm guessing they'll order in late August once the survey data has been finalized. That said maybe they already have enough ordering data to feel comfortable about ordering now (I think they've received the Kickstarter $ about a week ago). Then it might offset the ship dates to a week or two earlier. *Shrugs* So much wild conjecture on my part...

I envision the success of the ASP effort will be not only its customizable nature, but also the ability to fulfill orders quickly (as some of their competitors are able to do) by drawing requested parts from bins of existing inventory. If they try to do it on a "just in time" model, ordering as they receive orders, it will be a much harder path to keep things flowing in a reasonable amount of time. The obvious drawback will be that you will have a LOT of parts on-hand, some of which won't be as popular as others, and will move slower, or not at all. So, managing inventory effectively will be key.

Of course, that is all conjecture on my part as well.

Hmmmm interesting points from everyone. I'm sure when it comes to ordering parts, assembling, and sending out parts on the surface it sounds easy, but there is a lot involved and will take some foresight and planning on the part of Saberforge. I rather enjoy the discussion and conjecture to keep us busy while we wait.

My two credits on this subject. I believe they will be ordering 125% of what they need for the orders and will start filling them on a "Travis got his survey in first, he gets parts a, b, g, u and ¤. Ship Travis." The extra 25% will be for the extra part people receive or as a starter stock for the business. The hard push (the Alpha, if you will is done, now they will need to prepare for the Betas.

I really wanted to play with the ASP last night, but didn't have the chance. I'm looking forward to the week-end to start playing and having some fun with it.

I discovered SF after the kickstarter was over, I'm not sure how I feel about that yet. On one hand, I didn't ruin myself by backing it. On the other hand, I won't have a custom lightsaber before 2016 (I mean I doubt I could considering the success of the campaign and their future custom site).

Reading your comments, I think that LordKnyght has a point. They obviously are going to order more than needed of each part, both for the purpose of having a stock to start this new business AND to ensure quality in case of defect. We all know (I don't personnally yet, but I do somehow by reading this forum A LOT) that SF focuses on quality, and that implies a VERY satisfactory result, but for which the waiting times are apparently pretty long.

However, I doubt they will feel comfortable enough to order some parts before the end of the survey. That'd be taking useless risks somehow. Unless I'm wrong, they have announced that the orders would be shipped somewhere in November, right? So starting the crafting sooner than anticipated could mean delivery sooner than expected to whoever will be shipped and delivered first, but it could also mean a shortage of parts at some point, and increased delivery times for other backers or clients. My take on this is, they will wait until the surveys are due and analysed to process the raw components order.

Of course, I'd be happy for backers who receive their orders earlier than anticipated, for the sake of all of us, that'd give a first look into the results of the ASP

I would tend to agree about being cautious about ordering, except that their initial goal for the ASP Kickstarter was $100,000. They ended up making almost $800,000! With that kind of extra cash, you can afford to do whatever you think it will take to make this thing a success, and then gauge your endeavors going forward on the data you gather during that time, without the concern of overextending. They have the luxury of being able to do that, and I hope that is how it plays out.