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TOPIC: Mystery Box Waves

Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80129

  • Sendu_Kojack
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How do we know that there is the start of a new wave? Is there any relevance in the waves? Like certain savers were in certain waves? I just don’t get the significance of saying that there are waves if there is nothing that makes a wave different from another.
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Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80130

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Sendu_Kojack wrote:
How do we know that there is the start of a new wave? Is there any relevance in the waves? Like certain savers were in certain waves? I just don’t get the significance of saying that there are waves if there is nothing that makes a wave different from another.

Each wave has set odds on getting an upgrade.
1/100 super dope
4/100 really cool
10/100upgrade
85/100 the base features
I used hypotheticals because each type of box has different upgrades but the odds and tiers are accurate.
So as you may have already surmised, if you buy multiples of a single wave you can effect your odds significantly. Whereas if you buy 1 per wave your odds reset each time with each wave.

The only way for us pleebs to tell that a wave has ended is that there is a "sold out" notice for a short time.
Current SF Sabers: Aeon V1 Mint Green, Vengeance QC Cyan
Mystery Box Loot: champion exhalted in indigo with energy vibration upgrade, shoto bastion
Last Edit: 3 months 4 weeks ago by Blue Wielder.
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Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80133

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So I would assume the $125 sell out faster. That being said does SF wait until the $300 sell out to start a new wave? If not then we could be on wave 4 in $125 and wave 2 or 3 in $300.

I wonder what waves I bought in for mine...
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Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80134

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The $125s are their own waves of 100 and the $300 are their own waves of 100. Think we are in wave 4 of the $125s.

The reason for this is the base configuration for the $125 is a saber without sound.
The base for a $300 box is a saber with sound so clearly they are 2 totally separate pools of sabers.
Current SF Sabers: Aeon V1 Mint Green, Vengeance QC Cyan
Mystery Box Loot: champion exhalted in indigo with energy vibration upgrade, shoto bastion
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Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80135

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Blue Wielder wrote:
Sendu_Kojack wrote:
How do we know that there is the start of a new wave? Is there any relevance in the waves? Like certain savers were in certain waves? I just don’t get the significance of saying that there are waves if there is nothing that makes a wave different from another.

Each wave has set odds on getting an upgrade.
1/100 super dope
4/100 really cool
10/100upgrade
85/100 the base features
I used hypotheticals because each type of box has different upgrades but the odds and tiers are accurate.
So as you may have already surmised, if you buy multiples of a single wave you can effect your odds significantly. Whereas if you buy 1 per wave your odds reset each time with each wave.

The only way for us pleebs to tell that a wave has ended is that there is a "sold out" notice for a short time.

Well it depends. The probability distribution changes actually. Say the wave is new and you are the first customer. If you buy 3 mystery sabers, then the chances of you winning a super dope is 3 x (1/100). But say you received your three mystery sabers and they turn out not to be a super dope. With the remaining 97 sabers left, say you again decide to purchase another 3 mystery sabers. Then your chances of winning a super dope is 3 x (1/97) = 3.09%, which is in fact slightly better than your first time. But in reality there is no way of knowing the second time round chances nor the first time chances because you don't have information about how many sabers are actually sold and which ones sold are which level.

In other words, the published odds are actually only true for the first time round when there are 100 sabers to begin with. Your actual chances changes as soon as someone else purchases a mystery saber before you. The change in probability each time could favor you in fact, depending on what it is you are expecting to win and how many are already taken up by previous buyers, if any.
"I am the Senate"
Last Edit: 3 months 4 weeks ago by Execute66.
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Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80136

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Right. So I wonder how many waves the $300 have had... I am interested to see if the 3rd box I bought might have been part of the same wave or not.

It just depends on wheat dates if at all they had a sold out on the $300s. I have seen one yet. Maybe others have.
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Mystery Box Waves 3 months 4 weeks ago #80138

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Sendu_Kojack wrote:
Right. So I wonder how many waves the $300 have had... I am interested to see if the 3rd box I bought might have been part of the same wave or not.

It just depends on wheat dates if at all they had a sold out on the $300s. I have seen one yet. Maybe others have.

Wave 1 or 2 I believe.
Current SF Sabers: Aeon V1 Mint Green, Vengeance QC Cyan
Mystery Box Loot: champion exhalted in indigo with energy vibration upgrade, shoto bastion
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