It all depends on where you ordered from. Here's the relevant FAQ section:
(1) Ordering from the Website, saberforge.com. When you order from the website, you will get a confirmation email, then nothing else until the saber goes to the build que. When its time has come, you will receive a shipping notice, and be provided the tracking number. However--this does not mean your saber has actually SHIPPED. It has just been added to the build que. It will take approx. 5 - 10 Business Days for the saber to be completed. Once the batch has been built, they will ship out. This can happen any day of the week. Saberforge smiths have recently transitioned from 4 10s to 5 8s shifts, and some are working some serious overtime regardless to produce as many hilts as possible every day.
(2) Ordering from Etsy. When you order off of Etsy, your order will state confirmed up until it ships. When it goes to Shipped Status on the Etsy order status screen, the same as what would have happened had you ordered from the site direct happens; you will get the shipped notification, and be provided the tracking number, however, the saber has not physically shipped. On Etsy, it is easier to keep track of the order from this point out. Once the order physically leaves the building and USPS begins to update the tracking information, the status will change from "Shipped" to "In Transit." Then, once it reaches you, naturally it changes to "Delivered." - Please note that recently Etsy's tracking system is pretty unreliable, we advise to track the orders directly on USPS. Due to the holiday season, USPS tracking is also experiencing multiple issues as well as delays on packages.
Here's what I've gathered is the general pattern:
1) Place the order; order enters the 'Confirmed' phase
2) Weeks pass (depending on business at SF)
3) Saber enters the build queue; Saber enters the 'Shipped' phase
4) Days/Weeks pass depending
5) Saber is constructed
6) Days pass until the next shipping day
7) Saber is sent to the Portland/ Oregon City Post Office
8 ) USPS shenanigans, any time from days to weeks pass with a 80/20 chance of them actually tracking the order
8b) If international, wait weeks for customs to process.
9) Receive saber, generally within the estimated lead time window.