TOPIC: ASP Kickstater Analytical Analysis

One of my favorite things in the world is analytics so I was looking forward to the end of the ASP Kickstarter because there would be so much juicy data to crunch. The pic quality is garbage so original graphs can be found on the websites cited at the bottom of the page.

Kickstarter Stats

new pledges in $ per day



"actual" $ in pledges per day (includes increases in existing pledges)



backers per day



Funding Goal: $100,000
Stretch Goal: $400,000
Total $ Raised: $799,633
Most $ Raised in a Day: $107,126
Least $ Raised in a Day: $4,596

Analysis

The ASP Kickstarter was clearly a runaway success. The initial funding goal of 100k was smashed in the first 6 days of the campaign. Although the next two weeks only saw an average of approx. 10k a day this period of time is paramount to a Kickstarter’s success as the Kickstarter’s existence begins to spread through social media outlets such as Twitter and Facebook and by word of mouth. Interestingly the week the Bane was released the Kickstarter actually lost money to what I call “Bane Drain” as Kickstarter funds were reapportioned (I assume) to purchasing Banes by the ASP Kickstarter early adopters.
The next big influence on the Kickstarter was the release of information concerning the stretch goals which saw a spate of backers jump up to the $700 tier which had a Bane saber as a reward. Following this the Kickstarter saw an appreciable upswing in daily pledges and began to average 15k a day up until the total $ pledged hit 400k. After this milestone the ASP Kickstarter exploded.
A number of factors influenced the sudden daily $ pledged average from 15k to 20k. First, the new month began and people were paid. Secondly after the stretch goals was reached the Kickstarter gained more “value for the dollar” offering ASP pieces and Bane sabers to those backers willing to pledge higher. A number of the lower tier pledgers increased their pledges at this time to reach the stretch goal rewards. Thirdly blogs and media websites such as CNET, Imgur, and Popular Mechanics began to feature the ASP Kickstarter.




As we can see there was also a great deal of grassroots support for the Kickstarter as backers were diligently spreading the word about the existence of the ASP Kickstarter.
All of this plus the impending release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the long track record of excellence that Saber Forge has, the zeal of Saber Forge patrons, and the overall enthusiasm of Star Wars fans in general were significant factors in making this Kickstarter a success.

Pledge Breakdown
pledge level breakdown per day


most popular pledge levels



As we can see the most popular pledge levels were the $350 level (29% of backers) followed by the $225 level (23% of backers), and the $700 level (17% of backers). Arguably the $350 level has the best value as you receive all the ASP components necessary to build a saber w/sound, an extra ASP component or blade, three 11x17 SaberForge cosplay prints, a saber belt clip, and a saber stand which all has a retail value of approx. $525. The $700 level was extremely attractive as well as it was the tier that offered the initiate Bane as a stretch reward. The $700 level retail value was approx. $1100.
Interestingly the day one pledgers increased their initial pledges (as a whole) by roughly 10k on the first day the stretch goals were reached and the data saw periodic spikes as those who had already pledged increased the amount pledged. Another example of this additive anomaly was how on the final day of the Kickstarter $107,126 in new pledges was made and $61,567 was made in increased pledges.

Demographics






Not too surprisingly the overwhelming majority of backers were men. Interestingly however, was the huge number of backers who were contributing to a Kickstarter for the first time which is a testament to its appeal.

Final Thoughts
As someone who’s followed a number of Kickstarters it was particularly thrilling to watch this one in action as it was the first Kickstarter I felt a personal investment in. Over the last few months in the Custom Saber Community I’ve been witness to a great deal of divisive pettiness so it was encouraging and refreshing to see people from all over pull together and work together to make their childhood fantasies become their adult reality. It’s a real testament to the whole Saber Forge crew from the vision of the CEO, to the skills of the craftsmen, the creativity of the designers, and the indefatigable enthusiasm of the legion of Saber Forge patrons who got the word out that this Kickstarter saw the success that it did. This is one of those instances when America, and humanity, is working the way it should. People came together and built something instead of tearing something down. Bravo!


All data was taken from: https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1621134222/adaptive-saber-parts-make-your-dream-lightsaber-a/#chart-daily & https://kicklytics.com/Report.asp?ProjectID=248077

That one hell of an analysis man! I am not quite the statistician you are, but I can appreciate a good breakdown of the information.

I'm a rank amateur when it comes to this sorta thing but I'm doing educational research that requires statistical analysis that's very similar to performing an analysis of analytics. Glad you enjoyed it!

The stat I'd love to see is how much the campaign brings in. Will you be able to get that, or is that kept in-house?

Typically Kickstarters are run pretty close to the margins.

Kickstarter's Net Gain
Kickstarter 5% total fund fee= $39,981.65
Payment processing fees 3% + $0.20 per pledge= $23,987.82 + $2,392.80
Total Kickstarter Fees=$66,362.27
Saber Forge pledge $ after fees= $733,270.73

The number I arrived at in the processing fees portion was derived from the average $ spent by backers. The actual math would take DAYS so that number ($23,987.82) may be off. Anyways, $733,270.73 is SF's take (not sure what taxes apply). The sphere's above (and Saber Forge's accountant) knows the margins on all the rewards they offered. With this situation it's all a matter of scale. The whole reason SF did a Kickstarter was to be able to order enough ASP parts from a aluminum wholesaler to make it economically feasible to launch the ASP program, all the publicity was an added bonus. Scaling on rewards (whether stretch or the usual rewards) is the determining factor on whether or not the Kickstarter turned a profit. I suspect it didn't turn a huge profit. More data is needed though, as we're now in conjecture land.

Interestingly it seems that a single ASP component may cost roughly $20-$30 when they finally retail as blades (retail: $30) were offered as an alternative stretch reward to ASP parts. Not taking in to consideration the man hours it takes to finish a "raw" ASP part the "actual" cost for a tube of aluminum is probably around $10-$15. An appropriate algebraic expression or formula could take this data and answer your question Phoof but I have no interest in doing all that work.

Oh, I wasn't looking for their profit margin on the Kickstarter, but for how much ends up going to Saberforge once all is said and done on Kickstarter's end.

Your first numbers hit pretty close to what I was looking for, but are missing a key factor - how many pledges never get paid. I know I've seen a statistic on it, something like an average of 10% lost to bad cards that never get corrected.